Rays hope Garza can stay hot against O's

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays need all the wins they can get if the team is going to capture home-field advantage throughout the upcoming American League playoffs. With Matt Garza on the mound against the Baltimore Orioles, the postseason contenders figure to have a good chance of coming out on top tonight.

Garza puts a sensational career record versus Baltimore on the line in this evening's clash between the divisional foes from Camden Yards. The standout righty is 8-1 with a 3.14 earned run average over 11 lifetime matchups with the Orioles, which includes a 5-0 mark over seven starts as the visitor in this series.

The 26-year-old wasn't at his best in his most recent appearance at Camden Yards, however. Garza was rocked for seven runs and 10 hits over 6 1/3 innings while obtaining a no-decision in an 11-10 Orioles' victory, with Baltimore slugging four home runs off the Tampa hurler.

Garza has been significantly better as of late, as he brings a three-start unbeaten streak into tonight's tilt. The former first-round draft choice yielded just one run over a combined 14 1/3 innings in back-to-back wins over Texas and Oakland on August 17 and 22, respectively, then held Boston to a run through seven frames in a no-decision this past Saturday.

He'll be attempting to notch his 14th win of the season and move the Rays closer to first place in the AL East in the opener of this three-game series. Tampa Bay presently sits 1 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees in the race for the league's best record, but does a 6 1/2-game advantage on the Red Sox for the lead in the AL Wild Card standings.

The Rays won for the fourth time in their last five games on Wednesday, with David Price tossing eight outstanding innings and Evan Longoria delivering a tie-breaking RBI single in the bottom of the eighth that lifted the club to a 2-1 verdict over Toronto.

With the score tied at 1-1, Ben Zobrist drew a one-out walk against Blue Jays reliever Shawn Camp and moved to second when Carl Crawford greeted Scott Downs with a base hit. Longoria then singled through the left side, with Zobrist beating the throw to the plate to put Tampa Bay in front.

The clutch hit enabled Price (16-6) to win his 16th game of the year after the All-Star lefty allowed just one run -- a John Buck homer in the fifth inning -- and four hits while striking out seven.

"Unbelievable," second baseman Sean Rodriguez told the Rays' official site about Price. "That's the Price we've come to know and love right there."

Rafael Soriano held Toronto scoreless in the ninth to register his major league-leading 40th save, though the Rays closer had to work out of a big jam to get to that number.

Soriano retired the first batter he faced before surrendering a triple to Vernon Wells that placed the potential tying run 90 feet away. He would bear down and get a key strikeout of Adam Lind, however, before Buck flied out to the warning track in left to end the threat.

The Rays have won nine of 12 meetings with the Orioles, owners of the AL's worst record, so far in 2010, and are 5-1 in games between the teams held at Camden Yards this year.

Baltimore had ripped off four consecutive wins before dropping the final two tests of a three-game home series with Boston earlier in the week, with the Red Sox taking Thursday's rubber match by a 6-4 count.

Boston jumped out to a big early lead by scoring five times against O's starter Brad Bergesen in the second inning, though three of those runs were unearned due to an error by Baltimore first baseman Ty Wigginton.

Bergesen (6-10) lasted 5 1/3 innings in all and was reached for eight hits while issuing five walks.

"I was getting ahead of guys and then I was not executing," he said following the game.

Baltimore did cut its deficit with a four-run sixth inning, capped by Matt Wieters' two-RBI single, and made things interesting in the ninth as well. Felix Pie and Wieters began the frame with consecutive hits off Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon and Corey Patterson bunted both runners over to put men on second and third with one out. However, Papelbon struck out the next two hitters to protect the two-run edge.

Wieters ended 3-for-4 for Baltimore and Nick Markakis collected two hits, including an RBI single.

Kevin Millwood will oppose Garza tonight and hopes to duplicate his most recent effort, when the veteran right-hander fired eight shutout innings to defeat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on Saturday.

That performance was one of the few bright spots for Millwood this season. The offseason addition has produced an unwanted 3-14 overall record and had lost six consecutive decisions prior to Saturday's breakthrough, which lowered his ERA to a still-unimpressive 5.34.

Millwood's only 2010 encounter with the Rays took place in his season debut back on April 6, with the 35-year-old giving up two runs in a five-inning no- decision in St. Petersburg. He's 2-2 with a 5.80 ERA over six lifetime starts against Tampa Bay.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.